Apr 21, Andrew Skretvedt rated it really liked it. If you're short on time and want the most value from this book, start by reading chapter nineteen, which provides an excellent summation of the books driving themes, in just eight pages. If you've been sold on the book after this, the one-page summary notes at the end of each chapter are your next stop.
These "Don't be Fooled" sections give you the executive summary of the main ideas of the chapter, and include useful advice for use in your own analyses. If the theses still have your interest, per If you're short on time and want the most value from this book, start by reading chapter nineteen, which provides an excellent summation of the books driving themes, in just eight pages.
If the theses still have your interest, perhaps then read the chapters whole. The book overall is decent. Nevermind the unfortunate typos at least in my printing. It appears the publisher's workflow suffered from a case of, spellcheck--checked! There are plenty of other great books out there covering much the same ground as this one.
Some are more focused in particular topic areas and maybe give a more authoritative treatment than this one. I'd regard this book as more of a "field guide" to thinking about statistical presentations for a mass market audience.
But, don't let that dissuade you from this one. I mention only to encourage those who want more, that plenty of quality material exists. Smith gives the "experts" on pp. One expert he cites is Dr. Smith takes a greatly condescending tone in addressing his fellow experts in their analysis of this problem.
I read Mlodinow's book previously, and couldn't fault his analysis then. But Dr. Smith having set fire to it, I felt I had to go back and see how I could've been so misled! It just so happens that language is often sufficiently vague that it's easy to slip and believe that Drs. Smith and Mlodinow are talking about the same question. In fact, they are not which is also a theme Dr. Smith addresses very well later on in the book, all the more to grind my gears here. In deference to Dr.
Smith, I think his "common sense" approach is sufficient to apprehend the probability one would encounter if faced with a question like this in the real world. In short, he didn't deserve the harsh treatment he and his fellow mathematical athletes got at Dr.
Smith's hand. Smith's point larger point is entirely valid: one has to be aware that one's intuition could be right or wrong when making an off-the-cuff analysis, but common sense and taking the time to do some critical thinking will serve to illuminate the problem better and raise the odds your conclusion is correct. Smith is a Yale economist, Mlodinow is a Berkley physicist teaching probability theory now at Caltech.
Pretty darn good. Almost rated it five stars if it weren't for the lack of originality: there are lots of books on errors in data analysis. Because this is a recent book, it offers some advantages over, say, the classic How to Lie with Statistics.
Seems like it would be a perfect introductory book for anyone looking to learn more about how data analysis, data science, etc. These 4 book will induce extreme LSD-level revelations in the reader. Feb 23, Mom rated it really liked it. An enlightening and entertaining discussion of the use and, more often, misuse of statistics. In the early 60's I read How to Lie with Statistics , an absolutely fantastic expose, and this is in the same vein.
I am regularly annoyed at the misuse of statistics in news articles that make huge erroneous claims based on flimsy statistics. Reading this book would definitely remedy that! Examples of the false in An enlightening and entertaining discussion of the use and, more often, misuse of statistics. Examples of the false interpretation of statistics were taken from advertisements, politics, academic research, and news reports. One kind of statistical study that has often impressed me is the analysis of large amounts of data and the discovery of patterns within that data.
The author calls this technique "data mining" and shows how it can be used to "support" all sorts of ridiculous claims. I will no longer be fooled when I read that a conclusion is "based on the analysis of xxx thousands This insightful book explains how we should all be skeptical when presented with any information.
Just because a statement is preceded by "Studies show Researchers make mistakes, data can be manipulated, and most of all patterns can be found in almost any data set from which foolish conclusions can be drawn and presented to the gullible.
While this was an amusing read, there is a dark undertone due to the fact that This insightful book explains how we should all be skeptical when presented with any information. While this was an amusing read, there is a dark undertone due to the fact that every day we make choices based on what we assume is good data, and politicians make policies based on false information.
The fundamental fact is that to be valid, any study must start with a theory and draw conclusions ONLY about that data. And of course the methodology must be consistent and the calculations correct.
This was used by conservative news outlets to stir irrational fear and had direct impacts on the national budget discussion. Unfortunately, Reinhart and Rogoff left out key data sets and made calculation errors which completely refute their conclusions.
Because the authors wanted to get their study published and presumably had a political agenda , they essentially falsified their report. Conservatives took it as gospel however and used it to impact our lives. The author explains how to rationally employ skepticism to hold researchers accountable for their work. Remember that correlation does not imply causation, patterns appear in even random data sets, and that any good study starts with a theory and ends with the data, not the other way around.
Jul 29, Steve rated it really liked it. This is a combined review of the following books: Gary Smith, "What the Luck? As a booster shot, to recharge my thinking in these areas, I picked up these books.
They pretty much did the job; they are well-written in the language of the common person. Duke's work uses her experience as a gambler to shed This is a combined review of the following books: Gary Smith, "What the Luck? Duke's work uses her experience as a gambler to shed light on ways to better thinking. Ariely takes a slightly more academic approach, yet creates a very readable work.
Smith's first work, "Standard Deviations" is also quite useful. With respect to Mr. Smith's second work, "What the Luck? Much of this volume is nearly a direct cut-and-paste from his first volume; yet, he provides no admission. In fact, the bibliography doesn't list his first book, though the earlier work is referenced on the book jacket. This situation seems a bit odd to me, perhaps a bit sly?
Would Julia Child have been so bold to repeat recipes without acknowledgment? I'm left with the thought that for all our wonderment for the human brain, for all its capabilities, it is an organ with many, many flaws.
Because influential agents understand these flaws, we are susceptible to both gross manipulation and errors in personal and group judgement; I know I sure have contributed more than my fair share, worse, I know I will continue to do so.
Clear and mildly humorous. The best food for thought was the concept of "data without theory". It is something I've wondered about and he clarified some misconceptions I had. Also, his refutation of the common answer to a riddle I've seen many times was shocking you know your neighbor has 2 children and one is a girl.
Does the probability change if you know that the known girl is the oldest of the two children? It would have been well to have sever Clear and mildly humorous. It would have been well to have several pages of warnings to sit down and get a pot of Celestial Seasonings Tension Tamer Tea brewed before that doozie. Jul 11, Cliff Chew rated it really liked it. My background is in Economics, so this book covers some familiar content.
I can only assume that the content is pretty consumable for layman I am biased in this sense. Nonetheless, the content was still refreshing in certain aspects, bringing in interesting stories and views on some of the statistical concepts. No worries, there are no hard equations in this book.
Just some numbers that might take some time to digest. A light read that I would recommend to anyone who wants to get more knowledg My background is in Economics, so this book covers some familiar content.
A light read that I would recommend to anyone who wants to get more knowledge on how to be careful with data. Nov 11, Rob rated it really liked it Shelves: non-fiction. A good introduction to how data is manipulated, misused or misinterpreted.
Probably not going to surprise anyone who has any statistics background, but a very readable introduction for those who want to understand the world of data more. This could be a good book for school students as it will prepare them A good introduction to how data is manipulated, misused or misinterpreted. This could be a good book for school students as it will prepare them to enter today's data rich world with open eyes This book was great! Despite being about the much dreaded topic of statistics, it was highly entertaining and easy to read.
Gary Smith filled his book with understandable examples and winning arguments, truely helping the reader understand how easily data is tortured and sold as fact. Oct 26, Mike rated it it was amazing.
For an academic this book was well written with great examples of how even well-intentioned researchers can be duped by numbers. Apr 25, Gary Antonacci rated it it was amazing. Excellent entertaining coverage of statistical logic. Mar 09, Bill Leach rated it it was amazing. Data and statistics can portray information in very misleading ways. Smith takes the reader through some of the fallacies, providing examples which are inevitably entertaining.
While some intentionally misleading situations can be easily spotted, in many cases one's only defence is an awareness of possible meddling and the need to question data before accepting the conclusions drawn from the data. Topics covered include: - mangled graphs - those without zero on the Y-axis may be exaggerating the d Data and statistics can portray information in very misleading ways. Nov 12, Sarah S rated it did not like it Shelves: didn-t-finish.
I read the first two chapters. The ideas aren't original I was hoping for a rigorous and scholarly analysis, it didn't deliver. It reads like pop-stats, I should have read the reviews first.
Mar 12, Carl-Hampus rated it really liked it. View 1 comment. Oct 20, M. Raghu rated it it was ok. The title is really interesting but i was expecting a more rigorous treatment of the subject. Thus, the major part of this are dedicated to straighten the dividing line between correlation and causation.
As to the nature of this book as a critique, a lot of examples were drawn from an abundant of cases, thus perhaps at times makes this hard to read imagine the graphs and numbers!
A good though somewhat troubling as of no reference complement to Taleb's Black Swan and Fooled by Randomness Oct 19, Darrenglass rated it liked it. Compared to those books, this one is quite disappointing. Which isn't to say it's entirely bad -- the author has compiled a large number of interesting anecdotes about people misusing statistics, and some of them have been the type of story I bring up at cocktail parties or mention to my students -- but overall the book lacks cohesion and doesn't hold together as well a We are living in a golden age of pop math books, such as Jordan Ellenberg's How To Not Be Wrong and Ed Frenkel's Love And Math.
Which isn't to say it's entirely bad -- the author has compiled a large number of interesting anecdotes about people misusing statistics, and some of them have been the type of story I bring up at cocktail parties or mention to my students -- but overall the book lacks cohesion and doesn't hold together as well as I wanted. Jun 24, Ashish Sharma rated it really liked it.
Must read for all data analysts. The book gives insights into the data analytics , how it can be manipulate and influence big decisions. Jul 05, Roberta rated it liked it Shelves: non-fiction. The first half of the book held my interest as each chapter contained real-life examples of how statistics are misused, how people have based bad decisions on information that was presented incorrectly and how bad information can be made to look perfectly reasonable.
There is nothing here for anyone who has any statistics background, but it seems like an entertaining introduction for the rest of us. There are some errors described in the book that I see almost every day.
For example, Chapter 2 i The first half of the book held my interest as each chapter contained real-life examples of how statistics are misused, how people have based bad decisions on information that was presented incorrectly and how bad information can be made to look perfectly reasonable.
For example, Chapter 2 is about self-selection bias and survivor bias. After reading the chapter and looking at the graphics, it is difficult to understand how so many people get it wrong.
Gary Smith's Standard Deviations is both a statement of principles for doing statistical inference correctly and a practical guide for interpreting the supposedly data-based inferences other people have drawn.
The book is cleverly written and engaging to read, full of concrete examples that make clear not just what Smith is saying but why it matters. Readers will discover that lots of what they thought they'd learned is wrong, and they'll understand why. Standard Deviations will teach you how not to be deceived by lies masquerading as statistics. Written in an entertaining style with contemporary examples, this book should appeal to everyone, whether interested in marriages or mortgages, the wealth of your family, or the health of the economy.
This should be required reading for everyone living in this age of too much? Statistical reasoning is the most used and abused form of rhetoric in the field of finance. Standard Deviations is an approachable and effective means to arm oneself against the onslaught statistical hyperbole in our modern age.
Professor Smith has done us all a tremendous service. Humans are pattern-finding primates, but which patters are real and which are illusory? Science is the best tool we have for answering the question, but as Gary Smith reveals in this deeply insightful skeptical analysis of the use and abuse of statistics, the numbers never just speak for themselves. They are filtered through our biased brains, which distort purportedly objective statistics into subjective beliefs we want to be true.
His catalogue of mistakes we all make—including and especially scientists—should be memorized by every citizen LAWeekly article. Scientific American article. Cosmos review. Wired UK article. Huffington Post review. Dual Momentum review. MathTango review. BookBag review. FifthEstate review. Quantamize Book of the Week. Female Hurricanes: Hot Air. Search this site. Buy Standard Deviations. Report abuse.
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